California’s move to make transitional kindergarten universal is reshaping childcare enrolment patterns, highlighting challenges for private providers and the workforce amid high costs and shifting business models.
California’s move to universal transitional kindergarten is giving many families a free public option for 4-year-olds, but it is also putting strain on the private child-care network that has long filled the gap for younger children and for families needing longer hours or different settings. A new UC Berkeley report says the shift is already reshaping enrolment patterns, with transitional kindergarten accounting for 31% of the market for 4-year-old care in 2025.
Anna Powell, associate director of research and policy at the Center for the Study of Child Care Employment, said the change is creating what she called predictable growing pains in a system where providers, families and public programmes are tightly linked. California’s child-care costs remain among the highest in the United States, averaging about $13,000 a year for a 4-year-old, and that makes the free school-based option attractive for many parents. Yet the Berkeley researchers argue that the benefits for families have not been matched by enough support for the providers left to adjust.
The report, published on 12 August, draws on enrolment data and focus groups with early educators. It found that as 4-year-olds moved into TK, the expected increase in 3-year-old enrolment in private centres did not materialise. Instead, that figure levelled off, while the share of younger toddlers rose only slightly. For many centres, that shift means a different business model, because younger children need lower staff-to-child ratios, more specialised training and spaces redesigned for infants and toddlers rather than preschoolers.
Powell and her colleagues argue that state and local governments need to respond more quickly. Their recommendations include expanding subsidies for families who continue to use non-TK care, offering grants to help centres remodel for younger children, speeding up licensing changes and encouraging school districts to work more closely with other providers on extended-day care. The report also calls on counties to offer training, conversion grants and help promoting newly available places for younger children.
The broader concern, Powell said, is not only about business survival but about the workforce itself. Early educators in California are largely women of colour, she said, and they are often undervalued despite the skill and stamina the job requires. Without support, the report warns, many could burn out or leave the field altogether at a time when families still need affordable care options beyond TK.
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