EU childhood vaccination rates retreat after years of progress, prompting concerns

A new study reveals stagnation or decline in childhood vaccination rates across many EU countries, including Germany, raising fears of increased disease outbreaks amid misinformation and waning trust post-Covid pandemic.

A new study suggests childhood vaccination rates have stalled or fallen in many EU countries after decades of progress, with Germany among the countries affected. Researchers writing in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe said the pattern is particularly worrying because it emerged after years of steady gains in protection against diseases that can be prevented by routine immunisation.

The team, led by Luigi Russo of Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore in Rome, analysed WHO and UNICEF data covering the years 1980 to 2024. The study looked at seven standard childhood vaccine indicators: third doses against diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis, hepatitis B, Hib and polio, plus first doses against measles and rubella. The researchers said many of the downturns began between 2019 and 2022, overlapping with the Covid-19 pandemic and the period that followed. They did not set out to determine the causes, but pointed to misinformation and shifts in trust as possible factors. WHO reporting earlier this year also showed that, although the number of completely unvaccinated children in Europe has fallen, about 824,000 still lack adequate coverage, including 21,000 in Germany.

Across the EU, 16 of the 27 member states recorded downward trends in at least four of the seven indicators. Germany and Spain each showed declines in five. At the other end of the scale, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Lithuania and Slovakia each had six vaccines with falling trends, while Bulgaria, Cyprus, Ireland, the Netherlands, Romania and Sweden saw declines across all seven. By contrast, Hungary, Luxembourg, Denmark and Portugal were among the countries with mostly positive recent trends. WHO and UNICEF have repeatedly warned that gaps in coverage leave room for outbreaks of diseases that vaccination can largely prevent.

The biggest recent drops were seen in Hib and polio vaccination, with 20 countries showing weaker trends in each. Hepatitis B fell in 18 countries, DTP-3 in 17, pneumococcal vaccination in 16 and rubella in 15. Measles coverage was more mixed, with 14 countries improving and 13 worsening. Luxembourg and Portugal were the only EU countries to reach at least 95% coverage in all seven indicators. Germany was below that threshold in five, while Romania was below 80% in all seven. The researchers said even countries with strong national averages can still face local immunity gaps, especially where vaccine uptake is uneven across regions or communities. WHO has said that a 95% level is widely used as a benchmark because lower coverage can allow measles and other infections to spread more easily.