Ultra-processed diets carry an estimated $360,000 lifetime cost, study says

A model commissioned by Amy’s Kitchen estimates that Americans eating the most ultra-processed food could lose almost 10 months of life and incur substantially higher lifetime costs, though most of the headline figure reflects a monetised value of lost longevity rather than personal spending.

A new analysis commissioned by Amy’s Kitchen says Americans who eat large amounts of ultra-processed food could face almost $360,000 in extra lifetime economic costs compared with people who consume far less of it. The estimate combines medical spending, lost earnings, long-term care and a monetised value for shorter life expectancy, though the bulk of the total is not cash consumers would personally pay out. According to the report, only about $21,417 of the figure comes from health-related costs, while the rest reflects an assigned economic value for roughly 10 months of lost life.

The study, led by health economist Lindsay Allen, compares people in the highest and lowest fifths of ultra-processed food consumption and models what those differences could mean over a lifetime. It draws on previous research linking ultra-processed diets with Type 2 diabetes, heart disease, colorectal cancer, depression and Crohn’s disease. Diabetes alone accounted for 76% of the estimated health-related cost in the model. The analysis assumes a person starts at age 20 and keeps a similar pattern of eating through adulthood, but it does not prove that changing diet would produce the same savings because the underlying evidence is associative rather than causal.

The findings arrive as concern over ultra-processed foods continues to grow. A separate survey commissioned by Amy’s Kitchen found that nine in 10 respondents said they consume these foods without realising it, while participants estimated they made up about 16% of their diets. By contrast, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that ultra-processed foods supplied 53% of calories consumed by American adults between August 2021 and August 2023. Those figures are not directly comparable because they measure different things, but they underscore how common these products are in the US diet. The CDC said sandwiches, including burgers, along with sweet baked goods, savoury snacks and sweetened drinks, were among the leading sources.

Amy’s Kitchen is using the research to support a national campaign called “Cooking. Not Chemistry”, which argues that heavily processed foods are not always the cheaper choice. The privately owned company says it has recently earned Non-UPF Verified certification for more than 125 products, covering nearly 90% of its portfolio, and its five-week promotion includes digital advertising, retail activity and a Whole Foods Market activation. Marketing Dive reported that the campaign is aimed at health-conscious consumers aged 24 to 44 and is due to run through November 15. In the company’s survey, 69% of respondents said they would pay more for better-quality groceries if they believed that would lower long-term health risks, although that reflects stated intent rather than actual buying behaviour.