A comprehensive study in South Korea suggests that the rising numbers of autism diagnoses are primarily due to better detection methods, not an actual increase in cases, challenging claims of an autism epidemic in the US.
A new study in JAMA Pediatrics adds weight to the argument that rising autism diagnoses do not necessarily mean autism itself is becoming more common. Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin analysed more than 62,000 children in South Korea and found that both the cumulative incidence and the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder stayed broadly flat across 12 consecutive birth cohorts. The authors said the pattern points to better identification and testing, not a genuine surge in cases.
The findings land in the middle of a heated debate in the United States, where Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has described autism as reaching epidemic levels. But the latest research offers a different interpretation: if diagnostic systems improve, more children will be recognised earlier, even when the underlying rate of autism in the population remains unchanged. The study’s authors said their results do not support claims of an autism epidemic.
The Korean data, covering children born from 1998 to 2010 who were followed until age seven, included 2,077 children who screened positive and were invited for diagnostic testing. Of those, 881 received assessments, and 447 were diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. Across the study period, seven-year cumulative incidence ranged from 1.9% to 3.2%, while age-seven prevalence ranged from 2.0% to 3.4%, with no statistically significant rise or fall.
That steady pattern is notably close to current U.S. estimates. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says autism affects 3.2% of 8-year-olds in the United States, a figure that reflects a long-running increase in recorded diagnoses. Earlier reporting by STAT News noted that Kennedy has pointed to that increase as evidence that something environmental may be driving case numbers upwards, while the new JAMA Pediatrics study argues the more likely explanation is improved detection rather than a sudden change in occurrence.
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