A study using nationally representative data highlights how confidence in maths and science influences Black boys’ STEM career aspirations, revealing that standard career exploration approaches may not be effective for all racial groups and emphasising the need for culturally responsive support.
Black boys in ninth grade do think seriously about STEM careers, but new research suggests that the factors shaping those expectations are not the same for every group. Drawing on nationally representative data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, the study finds that confidence in maths and science is linked to STEM career expectations among Black boys, while the career exploration activities often promoted in schools and counselling settings do not show the same relationship for them. The pattern points to a wider problem in STEM pipeline thinking: the same support strategy may not work equally well across racial and ethnic groups.
The research, grounded in social cognitive career theory, treats career expectation as an early stage of occupational goal formation rather than a casual expression of interest. That distinction matters. As the authors note, adolescence is the period when students begin to connect academic experiences, social encouragement and perceptions of opportunity to a sense of what they might do in adulthood. For Black boys, those judgements are made in contexts shaped by unequal access to advanced coursework, limited exposure to Black STEM role models and school climates that may not always foster belonging.
The analysis covered male ninth graders who identified as Black, Asian, Hispanic or White, with the final weighted sample reduced after missing data were removed. Overall, 28.4% of students said they expected to work in a STEM occupation by age 30. Asian boys had the highest rate of STEM expectation at 40%, followed by Black boys at 29%, White boys at 27.6% and Hispanic boys at 21.6%. The differences across groups were statistically significant, suggesting that career expectations are already uneven early in high school.
Among Black boys, two variables stood out. Greater maths and science self-efficacy was associated with a higher likelihood of expecting a STEM career, and so was socioeconomic status. By contrast, the study found no statistically significant link between STEM expectations and the three career exploration measures it examined: talking about jobs and careers, engaging in planning activities, and attending career-related events. That result is especially notable because many STEM initiatives lean heavily on exactly those exposure-based approaches.
The pattern was different for the comparison groups. For Asian boys, career talk across parents, peers, teachers and counsellors was the only significant predictor. Among Hispanic boys, both career-related conversations and maths and science self-efficacy mattered. For White boys, all three career exploration measures that the study tested were positively related to STEM expectations, alongside self-efficacy. The authors say this suggests that the mechanisms often assumed to work in STEM career development do not operate uniformly across racial and ethnic groups.
The broader implications are sobering. A separate study on the stability of high school students’ STEM expectations found that teacher support and parental STEM support can help keep aspirations intact over time, while lower parental education is linked with a greater tendency to move away from STEM expectations. That work reinforces the idea that support structures matter, but also that they may need to be sustained and tailored rather than delivered as one-off encouragement. Another High School Longitudinal Study analysis, published in the Journal of Educational Psychology, similarly found that race, gender and socioeconomic status all shape STEM aspirations in high school, underlining that early expectations are formed within layered social inequalities.
For policymakers and educators, the message is that boosting STEM participation among Black boys is unlikely to be achieved through generic career exposure alone. The study suggests that academic confidence-building remains important, but it should be paired with culturally responsive mentoring, trusted adult relationships and school environments that affirm Black boys’ place in STEM. Because these expectations are already visible by ninth grade, the authors argue that early high school and even middle school should be treated as critical windows for intervention.
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